Research

My research sits at the intersection of statistical methodology and climate science. I develop new statistical tools — including Bayesian models, Gaussian processes, and extreme value methods — and apply them to better understand how climate change is affecting extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and atmospheric rivers. A central focus of my work is detection and attribution: rigorously quantifying the influence of human activity on observed changes in the climate system, with an emphasis on uncertainty quantification and spatial modeling of large environmental datasets.

Publications

2026

  • Rhoades, A.M., North, J.S., Rudisill, W., Hatchett, B., Risser, M.D., et al. (2026) Snow-eater heatwaves of the western United States. Science Advances. Link

  • North, J.S., Risser, M.D., Rhoades, A.R. (2026) Bayesian Regression for Dependent Tensor-Valued Data from Exponential Families. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics. Link

  • Noack, M.M., Risser, M.D., Luo, H., Tekriwal, V., Pandolfi, R. (2026) gp2Scale: A Class of Compactly-Supported Non-Stationary Kernels and Distributed Computing for Exact Gaussian Processes on 10 Million Data Points. ICML 2026. Link

  • Shi, M., Zhang, L., Shaby, B., Risser, M.D. (2026) Spatial scale-aware tail dependence modeling for high-dimensional spatial extremes. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Link

  • Kouski, R., Patricola, C.M., Bercos-Hickey, E.M., Risser, M.D. (2026) The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. Link

2025

  • Risser, M.D., Noack, M.M., Luo, H., Pandolfi, R. (2025) Compactly-supported nonstationary kernels for computing exact Gaussian processes on big data. Environmetrics, Link

  • Risser, M.D., Feldman, D.R., Boos, W.R, Rahimi, S. (2025) Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States. Environmental Research Letters. Link

  • Mahesh, A., Collins, W.D., Bonev, B., Brenowitz, N., Cohen, Y., Elms, J., Harrington, P., Kashinath, K., Kurth, T., North, J., O’Brien, T., Pritchard, M., Pruitt, D., Risser, M.D., Subramanian, S., Willard, J. (2025) Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. Geoscientific Model Development. Link

  • Mahesh, A., Collins, W.D., Bonev, B., Brenowitz, N., Cohen, Y., Elms, J., Harrington, P., Kashinath, K., Kurth, T., North, J., O’Brien, T., Pritchard, M., Pruitt, D., Risser, M.D., Subramanian, S., Willard, J. (2025) Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. Geoscientific Model Development. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Ombadi, M., Wehner, M.F. (2025) Granger causal inference for climate change attribution. Environmental Research: Climate, Link

  • Risser, M.D., Zhang, L., Wehner, M.F. (2025) Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves. Weather and Climate Extremes, Link

  • Zhou, Y., North, J.S., Rhoades, A.M., Tao, J., Rudisill, W., Risser, M.D., Collins, W.D. (2025) Atmospheric River Frequency-Category Characteristics Shape U.S. West Coast Runoff. JGR: Atmospheres. Link

2024 and earlier

  • North, J.S., Risser, M.D., Briedt, J. (2024) A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure. Spatial Statistics. Link

  • Srivastava, A.K.,Wehner, M.F., Bonfils, C., Ullrich, P.A., Risser, M.D. (2024) Local hydroclimate drives differential warming rates between regular summer days and extreme hot days in the Northern Hemisphere. Weather and Climate Extremes. Link

  • Zhang, L., Risser, M.D., Wehner, M.F., O’Brien, T.A. (2024) Leveraging extremal dependence to characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. * Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics*. Link

  • Rahimi, S., Huang, L., Goldenson, N., Risser, M.D., Feldman, D.R., Lebo, Z.J., Norris, J., Dennis, E., Thackeray, C., Hall, A. (2024) Understanding the Cascade: Removing GCM biases improves dynamically downscaled climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Rahimi, S., Goldenson, N., Hall, A., Lebo, Z.J., Feldman, D.R. (2024) Is bias correction in dynamical downscaling defensible? Geophysical Research Letters. Link

  • Duan S., Ullrich, P.A., Risser, M.D., Rhoades, A.M. (2024) Using Temporal Deep Learning Models to Estimate Daily Snow Water Equivalent over the Rocky Mountains. Water Resoures Research. Link

  • Wehner, M.F., Duffy, M., Risser, M.D., Paciorek, C.J., Stone, D.A., Pall, P. (2024). On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation. Frontiers in Climate: Climate Monitoring, Link

  • Noack, M.M., Luo, H., Risser, M.D. (2024) A Unifying Perspective on Non-Stationary Kernels for Deeper Gaussian Processes. APL Machine Learning. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Collins, W.D., Wehner, M.F., O’Brien, T.A., Huang, H., Ullrich, P.A. (2024) Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases. Nature Communications. Link

  • Vishnu, S., Risser, M.D., O’Brien, T.A., Ullrich, P.A., Boos, W. (2023) Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Link

  • Longmate, J.M., Risser, M.D., Feldman, D.R. (2023) Prioritizing the Selection of CMIP6 Model Ensemble Members for Downscaling Projections of CONUS Temperature and Precipitation. Climate Dynamics. Link

  • Ombadi, M., Risser, M.D., Rhoades, A.M., Varadharajan, C. (2023) A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes. Nature. Link

  • Pierce, D.W., Cayan, D.R., Feldman, D.R., Risser, M.D. (2023) Future Increases in North American Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 downscaled with LOCA Journal of Hydrometeorology. Link

  • Noack, M.M., Krishnan, H., Risser, M.D., Reyes, K.G. (2023) Exact Gaussian Processes for Massive Datasets via Non-Stationary Sparsity-Discovering Kernels. Nature Scientific Reports. Link

  • Bercos-Hickey, E., O’Brien, T.A., Wehner, M.F., Zhang, L., Patricola, C.M., Huang, H., Risser, M.D. (2022) Anthropogenic contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Geophysical Research Letters. Link

  • Rhoades, A.M., Hatchett, B.J., Risser, M.D., Collins, W.D., et al. (2022) Asymmetric Emergence of Low-to-No Snow in the Midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Nature Climate Change. Link

  • Ombadi, M., Risser, M.D. (2022) How is the weather tomorrow? Increasing Trends in Volatility of Daily Maximum Temperature in Central and Eastern United States (1950–2019). Weather and Climate Extremes. Link

  • Zhang, L., Risser, M.D., Molter, E.M., Wehner, M.F., O’Brien, T.A. (2022) Accounting for the spatial structure of weather systems in detected changes in precipitation extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes. Link

  • Charn, A.B., O’Brien, T.A., Risser, M.D., Longmate, J.M., Feldman, D.R. (2022) Sign of Observed California Temperature Trends Depends on Data Set Homogenization: Implications for Weighting and Downscaling. Geophysical Research Letters. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Collins, W.D., Wehner, M.F., O’Brien, T.A., Paciorek, C.J., O’Brien, J.P., Patricola, C.M., Huang, H., Ullrich, P.A., Loring, B. (2022) A framework for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change: Application to the United States historical record. Climate Dynamics. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Feldman, D.R., Wehner, M.F., Pierce, D.W., Arnold, J. (2021). Identifying and Correcting Biases in Localized Downscaling Estimates of Daily Precipitation Return Values. Climatic Change. Link

  • Molter, E.M., Collins, W.D., Risser, M.D. (2021). Quantitative Precipitation Estimation of Extremes in CONUS with Radar Data. Geophysical Research Letters. Link

  • Pierce, D.W., Su, L., Cayan, D.R., Risser, M.D., Livneh, B., Lettenmaier, D.P. (2021). An extreme-preserving long-term gridded daily precipitation data set for the conterminous United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology. Link

  • Rhoades, A.M., Risser, M.D., Stone, D.A., Wehner, M.F., Jones, A.D. (2021) Implications of warming on western United States landfalling atmospheric rivers and their flood damages, Weather and Climate Extremes. Link

  • Charn, A.B.. Collins, W. D., Parishani, H., Risser, M.D. (2021) Global microphysical sensitivity of superparameterized precipitation extremes. Earth and Space Science. Link

  • Huang, H., Patricola, C.M., O’Brien, T.A., Bercos-Hickey, E., Zhou, Y., Rhoades, A.M., Risser, M.D., Collins, W.D. (2021) Sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the western United States. JGR-Atmospheres. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Wehner, M.F., O’Brien, J.P., Patricola, C.M., O’Brien, T.A., Collins, W.D., Paciorek, C.J., Huang, H. (2021) Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation. Climate Dynamics. Link

  • Wehner, M.F., Lee, J., Risser, M.D., Ullrich, P., Gleckler, P., Collins, W.D. (2021) Evaluation of extreme subdaily precipitation in high-resolution global climate model simulations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Link

  • O’Brien, T.A., Risser, M.D., Loring, B., Elbashandy, A.A., Krishnan, H., Johnson, J., Patricola, C.M., O’Brien, J.P., Mahesh, A., Arriaga Ramirez, S. and Rhoades, A.M. (2020) Detection of Atmospheric Rivers with Inline Uncertainty Quantification: TECA-BARD v1. 0. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Wehner, M.F. (2020) The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high resolution climate models. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6, 115–139. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Turek, Daniel. (2020) Bayesian inference for high-dimensional nonstationary Gaussian processes. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation. Link

  • Charn, A.B.. Collins, W. D., Parishani, H., Risser, M.D., O’Brien, T.A. (2020) Microphysical sensitivity of superparameterized precipitation extremes in the continental US due to feedbacks on large-scale circulation. Earth and Space Science, 7(7). Link

  • Patricola, C.M., O’Brien, J.P., Risser, M.D., Rhoades, A.M., O’Brien, T.A, Ullrich, P.A., Stone, D.A., Collins, W.D. (2020). Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability. Climate Dynamics, 54(1-2), 351-372. Link

  • Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R., Ullrich, P. A., Risser, M.D. (2019). A unified approach to evaluating precipitation frequency estimates with uncertainty quantification: Application to Florida and California watersheds. Journal of Hydrology, 578, 124095. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Paciorek, C.J., O’Brien, T.A., Wehner, M.F., Collins, W.D. (2019). Detected changes in precipitation extremes at their native scales derived from in situ measurements. Journal of Climate, 32(23), 8087-8109. Link

  • Russell, B. T., Risser, M.D., Smith, R. L., Kunkel, K. E. (2019). Investigating the association between late spring Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures and US Gulf Coast precipitation extremes with focus on Hurricane Harvey. Environmetrics, e2595. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Paciorek, C.J., O’Brien, T.A., Wehner, M.F., Collins, W.D. (2019). A probabilistic gridded product for daily precipitation extremes over the United States. Climate Dynamics, 53(5):2517–2538. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Calder, C. A., Berrocal, V. J., Berrett, C. (2019). Nonstationary spatial prediction of soil organic carbon: Implications for stock assessment decision making. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 13(1), 165-188. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Paciorek, C.J., Stone, D.A. (2018). Spatially-Dependent Multiple Testing Under Model Misspecification, with Application to Detection of Anthropogenic Influence on Extreme Climate Events. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 114(525):61-78. Link

  • Feldman, D. R., Collins, W. D., Biraud, S. C., Risser, M.D., Turner, D. D., Gero, P. J., et al. (2018). Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends. Nature Geoscience, 11(4), 238. Link

  • Stone, D. A., Risser, M.D., Ang'elil, O. M., Wehner, M. F., Cholia, S., Keen, N., et al. (2018). A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5. 1-1degree. Weather and climate extremes, 19, 10-19. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Wehner, M.F. Attributable human‐induced changes in the likelihood and magnitude of the observed extreme precipitation during hurricane Harvey. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(24):12-457. Link

  • Dayton, E. A., Holloman, C. H., Subburayalu, S., Risser, M.D. (2017). Using crop management scenario simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of the Ohio phosphorus risk index. Journal of Environmental Protection, 8(02), 141. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Stone, D. A., Paciorek, C. J., Wehner, M. F., Ang'elil, O. (2017). Quantifying the effect of interannual ocean variability on the attribution of extreme climate events to human influence. Climate Dynamics, 49(9-10), 3051-3073. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Calder, C.A. (2017). Local Likelihood Estimation for Covariance Functions with Spatially-Varying Parameters: The convoSPAT Package for R. Journal of Statistical Software, 81(14), 1–32. Link

  • Sirilla, J., Thompson, K., Yamokoski, T., Risser, M.D., Chipps, E. (2017). Moral distress in nurses providing direct patient care at an academic medical center. Worldviews on Evidence‐Based Nursing, 14(2), 128-135. Link

  • Tanner-Smith, E. E., Risser, M.D. (2016). A meta-analysis of brief alcohol interventions for adolescents and young adults: variability in effects across alcohol measures. The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 42(2), 140-151. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Calder, C. A. (2015). Regression‐based covariance functions for nonstationary spatial modeling. Environmetrics, 26(4), 284-297. Link

  • Miller, J., Risser, M.D., Griffiths, R. (2013). Student choice, instructor flexibility: Moving beyond the blended instructional model. Issues and trends in educational technology. 1(1), 8-24.

Book chapters

  • Risser, M.D. and Tebaldi, C. (2025) Uncertainty and extremes. In: Mearns, L.O., Forest, C.E., Fowler, H.J., Lempert, R. and Wilby, R.L. (Eds.) Uncertainty in Climate Change Research ‒ An Integrated Approach. Springer Nature, Switzerland. Link

  • Risser, M.D., Noack, M.M. (2023) A High-Level Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification. Appears in Methods and Applications of Autonomous Experimentation. Taylor & Francis, London, UK.